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One of the reasons that dialectics is important is that it often provides the only way to understand complicated situations. Dialectical contradictions operate in two important ways. One is by making things change. For example, the contradiction between US and Chinese empires has recently led China to start building a new aircraft carrier and the US to send Navy ships into the South China Sea. Contradictions can also prevent changes that would happen if the contradiction were not there. The deadlock in the US Congress is an example of this.
In each system or process there should be one most important contradiction (the “main” contradiction) that has the biggest effect in determining what will change and what will not. A student study group in California decided to learn about main contradictions by trying to figure out the main contradiction in the conflicts in Syria today.  The group made a list of important contradictions affecting Syrian civil war. Here is their list of contradictions:

Between imperialist powers: US-Russia and US-China conflicts over control of oil and gas resources and pipelines.

Between regional powers: Iran-led Shia forces (Iran, Iraqi Shia, Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia minority in Saudi Arabia) versus Saudi-led Sunni forces (Saudi Arabia, Persian Gulf monarchies, Isis, Al Qaeda), Israel versus Arab states and Palestinian movement, Turkey versus Kurdish nationalists and Syria.

Inside regional powers: Syrian government versus various opposition movements. Egyptian rulers versus the working class and the Muslim Brotherhood. Shia versus Sunni versus Kurdish forces inside Iraq. Saudi government versus Shia minority. Turkish government versus Kurdish nationalists.

Regional powers versus imperialists: US-Saudi Arabia over US withdrawal from Iraq and deal with Iran. Turkey-Russia over Russian support of Syria, Black Sea pipelines, Dardanelles. Israel versus US. US versus Isis.
Some of these contradictions have become very intense. The conflicts between the Shia government of Iraq and the Kurdish and Sunni populations have probably destroyed the country. The contradictions between Iran and its Shia allies versus the Saudis and their allies show up in ongoing fighting in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. The Saudi execution of a Shia preacher has led to a more open break with Iran. The Russia-Turkey contradictions have become more intense since Turkey shot down a Russian bomber.

The Main Contradiction
The study group discussed what the main contradiction is in Syria. The group did not think that the main contradiction was between the Assad government and the opposition groups since other more powerful forces are involved. The group focused on two contradictions that could be considered the main one that determines whether the Assad government of Syria will stand or fall in the next year or two.

One possible main contradiction is the one between the Iran-led Shia forces and the Saudi-led Sunni forces. Iran supports Assad, as does the Iraqi government. Hezbollah, an arm of Iran, has inflicted serious defeats on groups opposing Assad. The Saudi, Kuwaiti and Qatari rulers have backed Islamist opponents of Assad, including Isis.

A second possible main contradiction is one between the US and Russia, backed by China. Syria is important to the Russian imperialists, their last military foothold in the region where they have major oil and pipeline interests. The Persian Gulf countries have oil and gas resources so important to the US imperialists that they have fought two major wars to stay dominant, without getting what they wanted. The US government wants Assad to go but its airstrikes and support for the Iraqi army won’t be enough. The Russians continue to arm the Assad regime and make airstrikes on forces opposing Assad. The Russians and the Chinese give diplomatic support to Assad, preventing UN action against his government.
After long discussion, the study group concluded that the US-Russia contradiction was the main one.  We thought that the Russian support for the Assad regime was at least as important as the support from Iran and its allies. We thought that US support for Assad’s opponents was at least as important as whatever the Saudi-led forces can muster. If there is a deal made over the future of Syria, the US and the Russians will be the most important players. 
The group was pretty confident with this answer, but could certainly be wrong. It also doubted that the US-Russia contradiction was the main contradiction in the development of Isis, guessing that the Shia-Sunni contradiction is more powerful there, after the US withdrawal from Iraq. It would be good to hear readers’ ideas about both these conclusions.

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