Only Communist Revolution Can Prevent WWIII here ♦ Dialectics of US-China Rivalry here ♦
(These articles are published on the web, not in print)
US Imperialists Predict “The Return of Great-Power War” — Only Communist Revolution Can Prevent World War III
The influential US Council on Foreign Relations published “Coming Storms: The Return of Great-Power War” in the Nov/Dec 2020 issue of its Foreign Affairs magazine.
The article disagrees with some U.S. policymakers and experts who argue that since the collapse of the Soviet Union “great-power war is a relic of a bygone age.”
It acknowledges that, given the bloody history of capitalism-imperialism, “the absence of war among great powers since 1945 is striking.” Yet, it says, “that doesn’t mean it is off the table.” It points to the tensions between great powers – especially between China and the US – as evidence that the “war between them in the coming decades is not only possible but probable.”
We communists add that it’s inevitable – unless the international working class organizes armed insurrections to destroy capitalism–imperialism and build communism.
Short of that, there is nothing to stop this genocidal war. The article uses historical examples to debunk “Misplaced Optimism.” That is, the belief that economic interdependence, cultural integration, the so-called liberal international order or even nuclear deterrence will reduce the risks of war.
The article explains in geopolitical terms why war between China and the US is inevitable. China aspires to be the dominant power in East Asia on the way to becoming the world’s dominant imperialist. Crucial to this is reintegrating Taiwan to the mainland.
However, the US would have to “retract its security guarantee to Taiwan and recognize Beijing’s claims on the island.” The US would need to refrain from “condemning Beijing’s policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and issuing thinly veiled calls for regime change.”
The authors think there is little chance of this because “doing so would mean acknowledging the end of U.S. primacy.” And “if Washington does not cede its dominance in East Asia it is on the fast track to war.”
They offer only a faint hope that the struggle between dominant and rising powers could be resolved peacefully. This would require that the US be less arrogant and more sensitive to the needs and concerns of the rising power, and China to be less impatient and assertive.
The US is doing the opposite, with President-Elect Biden proclaiming that “the US is back!” This prompts many US observers to caution that the US and China are sleepwalking into World War III. The Foreign Affairs article shows that they are doing it with their eyes wide open.
Class Society, Capitalism-Imperialism and the March to War
Two insoluble contradictions push capitalism-imperialism towards global war, regardless of the capitalists’ desires. These are the falling rate of profit and the crisis of overproduction.
The capitalists’ futile efforts to stop the rate of profit from falling are counterproductive in the long run. They intensify and deepen the crisis of overproduction as automation, increases production while displacing workers. Capitalists chase ever-shrinking markets.
Capitalism chokes on capital that can’t be invested profitably amid mountains of unsold goods. The crisis deepens into recessions and depressions. More productive capacity is idled and the masses are impoverished even more. War on a global scale is needed to destroy the excess capital, productive capacity and workers.
This restores the rate of profit to a “healthy” level. Capital can now be invested profitably in rebuilding destroyed cities and factories over workers’ dead bodies. Capitalism has been reinvigorated until the next crisis of overproduction.
Only a communist-led working class can put an end to this unending capitalist cycle of horrors and end war forever. We need urgently to mobilize industrial workers to communism, a system that eliminates money and produces for human needs.
We must win the youth to join the capitalist-imperialist armed forces to convince rank and file soldiers and sailors to fight on our side.
Join us to help usher in this new communist world.
Dialectics of Sharpening US-China Conflict
Decades ago, US companies were happy to get access to Chinese markets. They were even willing to give up some of their intellectual property to get it. China wanted the investment, since its domestic economy had weaknesses. The contradiction between US and Chinese capitalism was weak, and unity was the dominant side of the contradiction.
Now the situation is different. China has an auto industry and is becoming strong in some high-tech areas. They have less need for foreign investment that competes with their own production. The struggle aspect of the contradiction is now dominant, and the contradiction is becoming more intense.
Under Premier Xi, China has become very assertive at home and more aggressive outside. He has gotten rid of some of the most corrupt party leaders, turned the screws on Hong Kong, and tried to give his rule a more solid intellectual basis. That includes reviving some bits of Maoism, publishing Xi’s collected works and sponsoring official philosophy.
China’s armed forces are growing much stronger, and now talk of being able to conquer Taiwan. The have aircraft carriers, 5th generation fighters, anti-ship missiles, and more. They are prepared for border fighting with India.
China has more foreign bases and is creating alternate transportation routes, in particular for oil. They are more aggressive in the South China Sea, have wider economic relations with Southeast Asia and have penetrated into Europe. Covid has given them a more prominent role as an apparent good actor toward small countries.
The US has reacted to this by re-arming Taiwan, changing economic relations with Hong Kong, continuing naval actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan strait, and seeking an alliance with India.
US imperialists hope that under Biden, US alliances can be rebuilt. They may try to revive the anti-China TPP trade alliance. Covid exposed the US dependence on foreign supply chains, especially in China. This is a strategic weakness even when it does not involve military hardware.
Trump is an inept imperialist, but the US weaknesses are real. The Council on Foreign Relations, a key bosses’ policy group, once hoped that the US could find a “soft landing” from its sole superpower role as other powers rise. That isn’t happening. The contradiction between US and Chinese capitalists continues to grow. A shooting war is entirely possible, perhaps over Taiwan.
Front page of this issue
