June 23— As we go to press, the US rulers are obviously losing in Iran. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed last week declares an end to all hostilities, including in Lebanon, by the US and Iranian military and their allies. Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days. It reaffirms that they won’t buy or develop nuclear weapons. (This was in place before the war.) The US agrees to pay economic compensation, to lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and to unfreeze Iranian assets in the US. The bosses’ press worldwide agrees that this is a humiliating defeat for the US.
In spite of the MoU, the Israeli military (IDF) continues its campaign of death and destruction in southern Lebanon. This has sharpened contradictions within Israeli society, intensifying the crisis brought about by the genocide in Gaza.
Trump complains publicly that IDF attacks on Lebanon are undermining US authority. Yet the US “War” Department continues planning to integrate the IDF and the US weapons industry.
Iranian state media proclaimed victory. But it’s no victory for the Iranian working class. This war began with the murder of school children and the bombing of oil dumps. It has brought terror, destruction, pollution, and death to the Iranian masses. Months ago, the Iranian rulers were facing mass rebellions. They have been able to use this war to strengthen their hold on power and set back working-class opposition.
Trump has done so many vicious, corrupt, and demented things that it’s hard to say what might be the tipping point. But the murderous debacle in Iran has alienated supporters who believed him when he said, “No new wars.” His open indifference to the costs of war at the pump and in the deaths of service members have sent his approval ratings to new lows.
To many, the US Democratic Party looks good by comparison. It will probably win some major elections. The Democrats are unlikely to undo much of what Trump has done. They probably wouldn’t have launched this war on Iran, but they have chosen plenty of other wars. They will build on this, on the national security state, on Trump’s fascist ICE raids.
The US/Israel vs. Iran war has destabilized political alliances in the region. US allies saw that the US left them unprotected from Iranian drones. The rulers of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others, are reaching out to other regional and world powers, including Türkiye, Pakistan, Russia and China.
Alliances are shifting and forming up as US and Chinese imperialisms position themselves as global adversaries. In this process, China is the big winner. It emerges as a reliable long-term partner that will invest in industrial parks, ports, and logistics corridors to guarantee the flow of oil and oil profits. It will reap the rewards in global allies.
The working class never wins any wars except communist revolution. The rulers send us, our family members and fellow workers to fight for their interests. These wars are not our wars. That’s true in the US. In Iran. In Israel, Russia, and Ukraine. It’s true all over the world.
Our war is a class war against the bosses who get rich off of our work—and increase their power off of our blood and sacrifice. Armed conflicts like the one in Iran show us that capitalism is an unstable system, where peace is temporary but wars for profit are always on the verge of breaking out.
In this pivotal moment, the US as a declining empire is fighting to keep its position in relation to China as a rising power. More and more wars are inevitable.
Soldiers, sailors, and Marines pay in blood for these wars. They are also in a key position to end them. When they join with revolutionary workers and youth, we can overthrow this capitalist system. We can build a communist system where we will live and work together in commitment to the common good.
Read about the 1924 mass struggles in Iran here