May 5—War drums are rattling again in the Persian Gulf. Trump blames it on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. But the real reason is control of oil profits. These are key to who will be the world’s dominant imperialist exploiter.
In 2015 Iran signed a multi-nation promise to stop producing nuclear weapons in exchange for an end to economic sanctions. A year ago, Trump pulled the US out of the agreement and re-imposed sanctions. Last month, he escalated the provocation by declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (part of Iran’s army) a terrorist organization.
Then Trump ordered that any country or company that keeps buying Iranian crude oil could be excluded from the US market. That ends the waivers that India, China and Japan had that permitted them to buy Iranian oil.
Sharpening Conflict Between the US & China
Oil is key to industrial production—but it’s also a necessity during war.
China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. Iran is crucial to China’s Belt and Road plan to build railways, roads, and pipelines from China to Europe. This import-export network is also part of China’s preparation for war as well as its imperialist expansion.
In a war against US imperialism, this network would allow Chinese oil shipments to bypass the Strait of Malacca. This strategic chokepoint is controlled by US warships. Most of China’s exports and imports now pass through it.
US bosses see Iran’s power as a growing threat because of Iran’s increasing influence in Iraq and Syria. That means that oil from Iraq and Syria, in addition to Iranian oil, can flow by land to China.
On April 23, as the conflict heated up, the government-owned China Daily proclaimed China’s “right” to import oil from Iran. It warned that the Chinese government would not sit idly by if this right was attacked.
An Indian commentator called for a “trading bloc with China that would allow the two countries to buy Iranian oil without going through the US banking sector.”
Dangerous Provocation in the Strait of Hormuz
Oil profits are key to Iran’s capitalist economy. The Iranian rulers have responded to US threats by threatening to pull out of the nuclear agreement and increase uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons
They have also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. Or they might narrow it by carrying out joint military drills with Russia. That way, Iran drives up the price of oil, without directly attacking the US.
The Trump administration claimed it had reports that Iran was planning to attack US forces in the Middle East. It has sent an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf.
On May 13, four ships including two Saudi oil tankers were sabotaged near the Strait of Hormuz. This escalating confrontation could lead to war.
US Rulers in Disarray Over Trump’s Iran Policy
All US imperialists seek to divide Russia, China and Iran. But many see that Trump’s moves against Iran are only further isolating the US. He is driving these powers and possibly others together. Foreign Affairs (speaking for major US imperialists) blames this policy on US Secretary of State Bolton. It states that the US has little support for its Iran sanctions anywhere.
US imperialism is in decline. This means that US rulers, despite their tactical differences, must eventually resort to war to try to regain their empire. They are modernizing their military to counter China and Russia’s advanced militaries—-and they plan to act against their imperialist rivals.
Scientists warn us of the environmental crisis caused in large part by the use of fossil fuels. Yet the world’s imperialists prepare for world war to guarantee their control of petroleum.
War & Crisis Are Opportunities for Revolution
Capitalism is a based on deadly competition and exploitation for maximum profit. War exposes its true nature and creates the possibility for ending it with communist revolution.
But that won’t happen automatically. We must spread Red Flag and ICWP to workers, soldiers and youth around the world. When the bosses start their war, we must be prepared to finish it with communist revolution.
On the ashes of their war we will build a new world, without money or borders separating us. Freed from capitalist competition, we will cooperate to meet the needs of the masses while we protect the planet for future generations.
The current crisis shows us all how urgently we need to end capitalism before it kills us all. Join ICWP to fight for a communist future.