On this page: Thailand Protests and the Kra Canal here ♦ India-China Rivalry here ♦
This map shows how much time ships would save with the Kra (Thai) Canal
From Inter-Imperialist Conflict to Communist Revolution
October 11 – Hundreds of thousands protested last month against Thailand’s monarchy and its fascist military government. There are calls for an October 15 general strike- a political strike for democratic reforms.
But in this situation – as is often the case – what we see in the pictures doesn’t get to the heart of the matter. Why now? What’s at stake?
We often say that inter-imperialist rivalry is the main contradiction in the world. That is, it affects or shapes or even drives many of the other processes at work. Turns out, the Thai crisis is one of those.
The main issue confronting the Thai government today is the Kra canal project. China wants to invest up to $30 billion to construct this canal across the narrowest point of the Thailand’s Malay peninsula. This would open a second sea route from China to the Indian Ocean. It would allow trade – and, critically, naval vessels – to bypass the crowded and contested Malacca Strait.
The Thai military/monarchy initially supported this proposal. However, it’s not clear how much Thailand would benefit. Like other partners of China’s Belt and Road project, the Thai government could end up with overwhelming debt and little to show for it. The Indian government is promoting this view.
A canal could also intensify tensions between the Thai government and a separatist movement in the mostly Muslim southern part of its peninsula. What if China, motivated to defend “its” canal, supported an independence movement there?
Export of capital is a key feature of imperialism. Those on the receiving end often end up badly, whether the creditor is the World Bank or Chinese imperialism.
And if a canal is dug, it might not be financed by China. Within the last month, Thai government officials have stated that India, the US and Australia are also interested in the project. Whether the Thai ruling class is divided or simply undecided is hard to say.
“Instability in Thailand matters,” declared a US analyst. Thailand was the first US stronghold in southeast Asia. It was a US bulwark in the 20th century “cold war.” US imperialism backed US-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej from 1946 until his death in 2016. (Is it coincidence that the Hollywood movie “Anna and the King of Siam” premiered in 1946? And the Broadway musical “The King and I” five years later?)
As the king’s health failed, political fights among the Thai ruling class sharpened. Massive street protests began. The military stepped in, executing a coup in 2014 that was quickly endorsed by the king. Anti-coup protesters adopted the three-finger “Hunger Games” salute still seen in the streets today.
The US Obama administration condemned the coup, although Thailand was still key to its opposition to militant Islamism in the region and to the rise of China. Since then, contradictions between the US and Thailand have sharpened.
Meanwhile, China has become Thailand’s leading trade partner and its second-largest source of foreign investment. Thailand has purchased Chinese military materiel. The two nations have conducted joint naval and marine exercises.
So, US-China imperialist rivalry is the context – and possibly a driving force – of the ongoing “democracy” protests. It is no longer clear which side Thailand would take in a US-China war.
Workers and youth have no material interest in taking sides in fights among imperialists. Our fight is the revolutionary class struggle for communism everywhere. Stepping it up means that the working class, not the imperialists, will drive world events. The future will be ours!
In a communist world there will be no empires or nations. No trade conflicts or imperialist wars. Our global working-class family will produce what we need and share it wherever it’s needed. No prices or wages or money or profits. No kings or exploiters, whether elected or unelected.
The fight for that communist world must start now. Help get this message to rebelling youth and workers from Thailand to Indonesia – and wherever you live.
India and China: More Struggle Than Unity
Cultural and trade relationships between China and India go back thousands of years. As recently as the 1950s, India’s Nehru hoped for friendly relations with Mao’s China. But where there is unity there is also struggle. Today the struggle is sharper than ever.
In mid-September, India and China – mediated by Russia – seemed close to resolving their fifty-year border dispute in the Himalayas. No more! Both sides are building roads, airstrips and other infrastructure. They are preparing for more war.
A more serious conflict is brewing in the Indian Ocean. China seriously outguns India in naval power. It is increasingly active in the Indian Ocean, especially near the Strait of Malacca. India has responded by expanding its presence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands at the western access to the Strait.
That’s why India is warning Thailand not to let China build the Kra canal. And why India is joining with the US and Australia to possibly finance it themselves.
Imperialists build alliances based on profit, not principles. Such alliances are never stable.
From the Sino-Soviet split around 1960 until after the Cold War ended in the 1990s, both China and the US supported Pakistan against Soviet-backed India. Now, Chinese (and anti-US Islamist) influence is growing in Pakistan. That – much more than the Trump-Modi connection – explains why India and the US are moving closer.
Contradictions have two sides – not three or more. The capitalist governments of Malaysia and Singapore (astride the Malacca Strait), Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia may prefer to remain neutral as a US-China war seems increasingly likely. But they can’t.
And workers everywhere can’t remain neutral in the class struggle. Wherever we live, it’s becoming impossible to live in the old way. That’s why anti-government protests are exploding.
We must resist with all our might the capitalists’ attempts to build patriotism and “national unity” and to divide the masses with racism and religious communalism. We must mobilize masses for communist revolution – now. Amidst the deepening depression and the increasing threat of world war.
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